Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 30th May. Two states in the nation are hosting competitions for BJP. It’s rare to witness a competition like this. The contest is on which of these two states will award the BJP with more seats. The seventh and last phase of the Lok Sabha elections is now underway. We can discuss percentages because there is a significant disparity between the numbers of seats in these two states. There will be an image revealed if we discuss the potential for the BJP to expand in which state.
West Bengal will be the BJP’s best-performing state, according to a statement released by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We ought to assess the likelihood that this may occur. The two states that come to mind while discussing competition are West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh is the first state which comes to mind. The Bharatiya Janata Party defeated the BSP and SP in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 alone. When the RLD, BSP, and SP alliance was created in 2019, many people thought the Bharatiya Janata Party would have a very tough time. The BJP’s strike rate in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 was 90. When the BSP, RLD, and SP formed their alliance in 2019.
The BJP faced its most challenging election in Uttar Pradesh in the previous 10 to 12 years. It appeared unlikely that the BJP would be able to hold onto its recently established bastion or even half of the seats within it. However, the findings showed that the strike rate for the BJP was 80%. This gives an indication of how the BJP performed in Uttar Pradesh under the most challenging circumstances.
What’s altered since that time?
First of all, the partnership of SP, BSP and RLD in 2019 has split. That alliance has since ended. Congress and SP are at odds. BSP is engaged in independent combat. RLD and the BJP have united here.
In light of this, the BJP’s social base has grown since 2019. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP partnered with Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, the party of Om Prakash Rajbhar, for the first time. It has a particularly noticeable effect on eastern Uttar Pradesh. You should anticipate that the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party alone will receive the majority of the votes in the majority of the seats.
Akhilesh Yadav had reaped significant benefits from Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party’s backing in the assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s social base has expanded as a result of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, RLD, and Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party, among others. Therefore, compared to 2019, the BJP is now stronger from a social base perspective. See the problems that go beyond that.
A major issue in the 2024 elections nationwide, and particularly in Uttar Pradesh, is free rationing, which was not discussed in 2019. Aside from this, the BJP stands to gain from the construction of the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor and the dedication ceremony of the Ram Temple. When it comes to the BJP’s opponents, the Samajwadi Party and the RLD have broken up. Additionally, the party that backed the BJP in the assembly elections is no longer in favor.
Furthermore, who has backed the Congress Party?
The Congress, which only has one Lok Sabha seat from Uttar Pradesh, has received 17 seats from the Samajwadi Party. Sonia Gandhi was the lone candidate to defeat Rae Bareli in the 2019 elections. Additionally, Rahul Gandhi had been demoted. Following that, the Congress party received 2.3% of the vote in the assembly elections of 2022, and two of its 403 MLAs were elected. If the Samajwadi Party is feeling so weak in comparison to 2019, it is evident from handing the Congress Party 17 seats in the Assembly. Alternatively, it is excessive to provide 17 seats in the Assembly to a party like Congress that no longer has any support. This suggests that the Samajwadi Party’s candidates for those seats were not very strong, it seems.
The BJP lost 16 of its 80 seats in 2019. Therefore, even if it receives 80 out of 80, its maximum room for advancement is limited to 16 seats. It is possible to install 16 extra seats. Since adding any more is not possible, how many of them ought to be added? The 90% strike rate set by the BJP in 2014 will also be surpassed in 2024. The year 2019 brought with it new situations and partnerships. As a result, the BJP’s strike rate decreased by 10%, and I believe it will eventually reach 80% to 90%. If it exceeds it by two to 4%, it won’t be a shocking thing.
The leadership and administration of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath brought about yet another significant transformation in Uttar Pradesh. In 2019, he had less of an impact. That same year, 2017, he was appointed Chief Minister. It was his first time as the Chief Minister he was taking up a new role as an administrator. Subsequently, the manner in which he operated, terminated the mafia’s dominance, reinstated law and order, instilled a feeling of confidence in the populace and in addition, he has fulfilled the state’s need for assistance programs. Uttar Pradesh is the only state where the two-engine government is functioning well, according to the Central Government. There’s no comparison to the chemistry and connection the Chief Minister shares with the people. In the entire nation, there isn’t a single Chief Minister of any party comparable to him.
This gives the BJP in Uttar Pradesh a significant advantage. When praising Yogi Adityanath at election rallies, Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims that “Yogi ji knows how to take out the heat of the mafia,” but then he claims that when it comes to law and order, he only knows how to operate a bulldozer. Indeed, it is untrue; he is capable of growth as well.
BJP in West Bengal
In West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 18 seats in 2019. It was predicted in 2019 that West Bengal could produce eighteen Lok Sabha seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which had only two seats in 2014. It seemed once that this was not feasible. However, the BJP managed to make the impossible possible. There, the Congress Party ruled for more than 30 years, while the CPM ruled for over 34 years. After BJP eliminated them virtually, it became the second most popular party.
In West Bengal, there are 42 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP has won 18 of these seats, the Trinamool Congress has won 22, and the Congress Party has won two of these seats. Consequently, this was 2019’s mathematics. The political landscape of West Bengal has undergone significant upheaval since then.
The people of West Bengal, up until 2019 and perhaps even until the 2021 assembly elections, were unwilling to acknowledge that their party, its leaders, and its Ministers were engaging in corruption with Mamata Banerjee’s knowledge. Up until then, the corruption issue was seen in a different light. Mamata Banerjee made a consistent effort and was successful in trying to distance herself from them because she felt that members of her party were involved in corruption. However, things have altered, particularly since 2021. In addition, the manner in which the Supreme Court and the High Court passed their orders and how the Mamata government acted to suppress the central investigating agencies, as well as the discovery of currency note caches in the homes of her Ministers.
In addition to the accusations of corruption made against their leaders and Ministers, as well as the Sandeshkhali issue, they have attempted to besiege and arrest them in an effort to prevent them from carrying out their duties.
The High Court has furthermore, the most recent ruling concerning Muslim appeasement details how Mamata Banerjee’s administration attempted to grant Muslims or members of the lower classes reservations by reducing the number of backward class seats. As a result of all of that, Mamata Banerjee is experiencing her first period of defensiveness in her political career.
She had to admit that she was disappointed by what had transpired in regards to Sandeshkhali. In addition, she stated that she would leave the message following the elections. Mamata Banerjee does not advocate politics like this. It’s acceptable to acknowledge that there may be some truth to the Prime Minister’s claim that the West Bengal poll is biased. The West Bengal elections of 2024 will look different from those of 2019. This is something everyone can see.
Although the Bharatiya Janata Party’s performance in the 2021 assembly elections fell far short of expectations, the organization that was strengthened during that period and the ongoing efforts to strengthen it since then have had a significant impact on the organization’s outcome. The BJP that emerges in 2024 is not the same as the BJP that emerges in 2019. The leadership, issues, organization, and power of the national leadership have all significantly levelled up since then. The accusations of corruption against Mamata Banerjee are rampant. The scenario in West Bengal has shifted when all of them are taken into account. It is unclear how far the BJP will go. Based only on the outcomes of 2019, we were unable to forecast the 2024 results.
There is a possibility that the BJP will add one or two additional seats in West Bengal and roughly the same number of seats in Uttar Pradesh. Thus, the race to increase the number of BJP seats in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh is quite close. The state that has stepped forward will be revealed on June 4. In these two states, let’s presume that the BJP will have more seats than it had in 2019. West Bengal offers greater opportunities as compared to Uttar Pradesh. Based on the percentage, It can be predicted that Uttar Pradesh would emerge victorious. In terms of percentage, West Bengal will fall behind. West Bengal, however, can advance numerically.
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