India’s Key Political Parties Shift Focus to Economic Issues Ahead of Lok Sabha Polls

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 10th April. With less than 10 days remaining for the first phase of polling in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, India’s prominent rival parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, are intensifying their focus on economic concerns. Price rise, unemployment, poverty, and agricultural distress have emerged as prominent issues in various surveys.

The Congress and the BJP have initiated a verbal duel over which government performed better economically: the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Manmohan Singh or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Narendra Modi.

While the Congress manifesto pledges to bolster the Indian economy through job-centric growth and transforming the nation into a manufacturing hub, PM Modi has vowed to elevate India to the position of the third-largest economy during his third term, with aspirations for full development by 2047.

Amidst these debates, attention turns to historical data analyzing the correlation between economic performance, particularly GDP growth and inflation, and Lok Sabha election outcomes. Analysis spanning from the 1971-77 election cycle onwards reveals intriguing patterns.

During Indira Gandhi’s tenure from 1971 to 1977, a GDP growth of 2.7% was recorded, leading to her electoral defeat and the formation of the first non-Congress government. Subsequent election cycles witnessed fluctuations in GDP growth rates, often influencing electoral outcomes.

Notably, governments that managed to enhance the country’s growth rate generally secured electoral victories, as evidenced by instances in 1984, 1999, 2009, and 2019. Conversely, administrations experiencing lower GDP growth compared to predecessors often faced electoral setbacks, observed in 1977, 1980, 1991, 1996, 2004, and 2014.

Intriguingly, no clear correlation emerges between inflation rates and electoral outcomes. Governments with both lower and higher inflation rates have faced electoral defeats in various elections.

The analysis delves into the economic performance of the Modi government, highlighting a dip in growth during its second term, primarily attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the government’s first term was marked by low inflation, the second term has witnessed a notable rise in consumer price index inflation.

As India prepares for its upcoming elections, the intricate interplay between inflation, economic growth, and electoral outcomes remains a focal point, echoing global trends amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.