Lok Sabha Election 2024: A Crucial Test for BJP’s Political Fortunes

Paromita Das 

GG News Bureau

New Delhi, 22nd May. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are navigating a challenging political environment as the fifth phase of the general election draws to a close. With numerous obstacles in his way, Mr. Modi—who is vying for an uncommon third term as prime minister—may not be able to secure the NDA’s mandate of more than 400 members as predicted. In that sense, the election is serving as a kind of potential test for the BJP, exposing both its weaknesses and the tenacity of its rivals. Voter fatigue is a major role in this election. The initial fervor that marked Mr. Modi’s previous campaigns have subsided.

The reduced voter turnout in comparison to prior elections is indicative of this feeling. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s ideological parent, has intervened by stepping up voter engagement activities, although there is still a significant hurdle. It is evident that the BJP is worried as it works to energize its supporters and revive the momentum that brought Mr. Modi to power in the past. Voters’ concerns are mostly economic in nature, casting aside the religious and nationalist fervor that had historically supported BJP campaigns. The opposition has found fertile ground in the form of unemployment, agrarian misery, and unhappiness over economic policies that promote inequality. There is a noticeable lack of economic satisfaction in states like Maharashtra, Bihar, and Haryana.

A wider discontent that the prime minister is attempting to address through media interactions on an unprecedented scale is highlighted by protests by unemployed youngsters and farmers’ complaints over export prohibitions. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress has headed the opposition, which has attempted to capitalize on these problems by putting up a stronger united front than in the past elections. The opposition has been rejuvenated by Mr. Gandhi’s repositioning himself as a grassroots leader through his padayatras and his readiness to create tactical partnerships with local parties. This coalition has shown to be more powerful than anticipated after initially being written off as a motley collection of competing and vested interests.

The political difficulties facing the BJP are exacerbated by its internal problems. A more comprehensive campaign approach is less effective because of the marginalisation of other leaders in the party due to Mr. Modi’s control. An excessive dependence on Mr. Modi’s persona has resulted in a campaign that is unduly dependent on the influence of several key party officials outside of their areas of influence. This campaign’s centralization runs the danger of offending voters who are seeking real answers to their issues. Furthermore, in rural Uttar Pradesh itself, where stray animals constitute a major issue, the BJP’s missteps—like the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh’s attempt to outlaw cow slaughter nationwide—have backfired. In important battleground states, these problems have fueled voter sentiment along with the financial hardships that farmers are facing. The BJP’s narrative has become defensive in states like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, where the party has historically enjoyed strong support. The term “rogue wave” may not be appropriate, but a number of seemingly unrelated events are coming together to affect the BJP’s initial predictions.