New Alliances: Sarayu Rai and Nitish Kumar Redefine Jharkhand’s 2024 Political Future

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau

New Delhi, 18th July. In recent days, Jharkhand’s political landscape took a significant turn when state legislator Sarayu Rai met with Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Patna. The meeting aimed to explore the potential for an alliance with the Janata Dal United (JDU) for the upcoming 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections.

Following the discussion, Rai made a positive announcement on Twitter, stating, “Consensus has been reached to fight together in the Jharkhand Assembly elections. JDU leadership will soon decide on the remaining electoral formalities.” This development signals a new phase in Jharkhand politics, with the JDU seeking to expand its influence and build strategic partnerships in the neighboring state.

Rai, a prominent independent legislator and former BJP member

The alliance between Sarayu Rai and the JDU could reshape the political dynamics in Jharkhand. Rai, a prominent independent legislator and former BJP member, has a strong political presence in the state. His collaboration with the JDU could bolster the party’s chances in the assembly elections and create a formidable opposition to the ruling parties.

This alliance reflects the broader strategy of regional parties to strengthen their positions and forge coalitions to challenge larger national parties. As the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections approach, this new partnership will be closely watched by political analysts and voters alike, as it could significantly influence the electoral outcome and the future of Jharkhand’s political landscape.

Rai’s party aims to contest 30 seats in the upcoming elections, necessitating the need for allies and candidates. Rai recently met with Kunal Sarangi, who left the BJP after not receiving a ticket from the Jamshedpur Lok Sabha constituency. Sarangi now wishes to contest from the Baharagora constituency, and Rai has proposed this opportunity to him.

Forming Alliances with Soren

Rai also met with Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren. In 2019, Rai had supported the Soren government from outside but later withdrew support due to disagreements with Minister Bannu Gupta. Recently, Rai has adopted a neutral stance, indicating a possibility of aligning with both sides in the upcoming elections.

Rai’s meetings have posed new challenges for BJP

Rai’s meetings have posed new challenges for the BJP’s electoral strategist Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Additionally, the BJP’s plans to expand beyond Bihar present new challenges for the party. Since Jharkhand’s formation, the JDU has struggled to establish its identity in the state’s politics. In 2005, when Nitish Kumar emerged as a development figure, the party had six legislators. However, this number reduced to two in the 2009 elections, and the party came to zero in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

JDU’s Electoral Strategy for 2024

In the 2024 elections, the Janata Dal United (JDU) is focusing on two primary vote banks – Kurmi and Bihari – in Jharkhand’s political landscape. The “Bihari” vote is a new categorization in Jharkhand’s politics, where there is a concerted effort to depict the state as the land of tribals. It is estimated that Bihari and Kurmi voters together make up 29-32% of Jharkhand’s population. However, the JDU is currently placing more emphasis on Bihari votes (7-10%) since Kurmi voters are split between the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) and the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM).

BJP’s Situation

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), aiming to reclaim Jharkhand from the Soren administration, faces a new challenge. BJP State President Babulal Marandi must maintain his influence against Rai while the party also needs Nitish Kumar’s support at the center and in Bihar. This means the BJP might need to accept Kumar’s decision to include Rai in the alliance.

If the BJP takes this step, it will have to negotiate a new seat-sharing plan with the JDU and Rai. Such an arrangement could increase dissatisfaction among party workers, reminiscent of the scenario during the defeat of Sita Soren from the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the 2024 general elections.

Conclusion

The meeting between Sarayu Rai and Nitish Kumar on July 13 indicates a potential shift in Jharkhand’s political alliances ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections. By exploring a collaboration with the Janata Dal United (JDU), Rai is positioning himself strategically, potentially altering the power dynamics within the state. This move suggests an effort to strengthen opposition forces against the ruling party, which could lead to significant changes in Jharkhand’s political landscape if the alliance materializes and proves effective in the elections.