BJP Slight Edge on Polymarket Ahead of Bengal Polls
$2 million traded on prediction platform as West Bengal votes in two phases
GG News Bureau
Kolkata, 22nd April: With West Bengal set to vote in the first phase of Assembly elections on Wednesday, data from the US-based prediction platform Polymarket shows a marginal edge for the BJP in online trading trends.
More than $2 million has been traded on the platform’s “West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner” market, making it the most active Indian state election market on the platform. Current trading positions indicate a narrow lead for the BJP with around 52 per cent probability, while Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress stands close behind at 47 per cent.
The data, widely circulated on social media, reflects sentiment among global traders rather than domestic voters. Other parties, including the Communist Party of India, are seen with negligible probability on the platform.
Prediction markets operate differently from opinion polls, aggregating views of participants who place real money on outcomes. Prices on such platforms reflect perceived probabilities of events based on trading activity.
However, such platforms remain prohibited in India. Under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA) notified in 2025, wagering on real-world events, including elections, is not permitted. As a result, trading volumes on Polymarket largely originate from users outside India, particularly in the United States and Europe.
The Election Commission of India has scheduled the West Bengal Assembly elections in two phases on April 23 and April 29, with counting on May 4.
The contest is primarily between the BJP and the ruling Trinamool Congress, which has been in power since 2011. The outcome of the closely watched election will be declared on May 4.
